Electrified projection of residential energy consumption: Mexico and the global temperature goal of 1.5°C
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32870/rvcs.v0i12.218Keywords:
residential electricity consumption, Business As Usual (BAU), renewable energies, emissions budget for 1.5° C, MexicoAbstract
National governments agree to keep global warming below 1.5°C to avoid the adverse effects of climate change. However, its promises to reduce emissions at COP26 exceed this objective by 60%. 65% of global GHG emissions are produced by household consumption, with residential energy consumption being one of the largest emitters. The objective is to analyze the trends of residential energy consumption in Mexico, and compare them with two residential energy electrification scenarios, compatible with the 1.5°C budget. A Business As Usual (BAU) scenario was projected by analyzing residential energy consumption for the 2005-2019 period, and comparing its GHG emissions with the 1.5°C budget of the Low Energy Demand (LED) trajectory. The electrification of the other two scenarios was calculated by converting the energy consumption projected in the BAU scenario to electrical energy, ensuring that the emissions factor of the national electricity system (SEN) was compatible with the LED trajectory. The results indicate that current trends would exceed the budget as of 2033, exceeding it by 374% at the end of the century. While the electrification scenarios would require the SEN emissions factor to decrease exponentially from the current 0.494 tCO2e/MWh to 0.108 tCO2e/MWh in 2100. These results make evident the need to introduce the issue of the 1.5°C emissions budget to the discussion of the electricity reform initiative, to ensure that Mexico's energy policies are in accordance with international agreements on the matter.Metrics
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